hindsight bias

基本解释

Finally, the hindsight bias is the tendency for decision makers to falsely believe that they would have accurately predicted the outcome of an event once that outcome is actually known.
最后，事后诸葛亮是指决策者相信他们一定掌握了某事的基本情况，他们就能精确的预算出这件事的结果的趋向。
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They tend to produce complicated models that accurately correspond to past events, but may not do so well in predicting the future -- social scientists call the phenomenon "hindsight bias."
他们制造了复杂的模板精确地与过去的事件吻合，但是也许对于预测未来并不是很管用——社会学家管这种现象叫做“事后聪明偏差”。
The hindsight bias is the tendency for decision makers to falsely believe that they would have accurately predicted the outcome of an vent once that outcome is actually know.
事后诸葛亮，决策者的错误的信任，他们能精确的推出预言和事后的结果的。
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后见之明偏误
Many studies have demonstrated the ubiquity and stability of hindsight bias so far.
以往的研究在各种不同的范式中证实了后见之明偏误的普遍性和稳固性,但很少有研究者去验证后见之明偏误的作用机制。